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Comments

  • cy-ra-no

    cy-ra-no

    March 10, 2015, 10:45 am

    Ok, so riddle me this.

    In one setting, there are two envelopes, one with X, the other 2X. I choose one at random, i can switch i i want. No contradiction, no arbitrariness, no contrived definition.

    In your setting, I choose an envelope which has a 100 dollars. Then you always put 50 in the other one. Guess what? One envelope still contains double the other, switching would never give me anything. No contradiction with the problem's definition. If you always put 200, not contradiction either. If you put 200 with probability p, then switching gives you something that depends on p. In no case is there a contradiction. Note that this kind of reasoning does not affect the answer to my first setting above, but completely changes the one i have here.

    There is ABSOLUTELY no reason to presume a 50/50 here, and since the problem is not giving this probability you are presuming to be 50/50, it is not well defined.

    Reply

  • jaiwithani

    jaiwithani

    March 10, 2015, 4:58 pm

    Price discrimination is removed/severely lessened and regulated by the proposed reforms. They can't charge people the maximum. Also, service minimums are instituted. Most importantly, and I hate that that people don't talk about this more, the insurance exchanges will force insurance companies to compete with each other, forcing down prices and explicitly checking price gouging.

    Subsidies frequently help consumers. See: food stamps. Grocery stores still have a profit incentive, and this still works (when its funded, at least). These are very analagous.

    Reply

  • jrohila

    jrohila

    March 10, 2015, 5:50 pm

    I would say that having nuclear weapons will be the fall of Israel...

    Why?

    False sense of security. Having nuclear arms or huge load of conventional weaponry doesn't bring real security. Real security is done by by building stable respectful and co-operative relationships to your neighbors, including Palestinians. Until Israel starts to work with its neighbors and makes a real peace with Palestinians, for example based on withdrawing to pre-1967 borders and allowing the Palestinians to set up their own fully independent state, then before that happens there is no real security.

    How I see it, someday, maybe 10, 50 or 100 years from now, somebody in the middle-east will come up with a bigger stick than Israel, that somebody makes an accident somewhere in the line, and there is either a war of annihilation or nuclear holocaust in the middle-east.

    Israel still has lots of sympathy and assurances from both the USA and the Europe. While Palestinians gets lots of sympathy too especially from Europe, Israels right of existence is not in anyways in question or in danger. Israel really should try to do the right thing now when it has the backing and not when it is in the real danger.

    Reply

  • burntsushi

    burntsushi

    March 10, 2015, 11:52 am

    > People do not "have access" to newly printed dollars- they are spent by the government on projects and services.

    Exactly. Where is that money going? Corporations and companies that have landed huge contracts with the government.

    > All wages would be impacted equally to inflation.

    So? If wages are behind prices, then people making low wages are screwed.

    > I think I see your problem here- you've got a distorted view of government jobs.

    I was never comparing government jobs to private industry jobs. I was referring to where the government uses newly printed money. (It's technically through banks.)

    >Yes, by way of making bizarre assumptions such as "the rich work for the government,"

    I did not make that assumption.

    > people who represent the rich (yes, republicans and libertarians,)

    If you say so. *shrugs*

    > Yeah, they HAVE aided the rich (in such cases as Greenspan's reign,) and they DO aid the rich.

    Sure. I agree. The Federal Reserve existed, and thus, harmed the poor. (I am weary of claiming that the Fed's policy specifically aide the rich in general, but it does aide those receiving government funds near the top.)

    > That said, the Federal Reserve system- notes, rather than the Gold Standard- is a policy that DOESN'T explicitly aid the rich.

    Right. It hurts everyone.

    > The Fed is an organization and a tool. It's not "the illuminatti" or some such shit

    LOL. wtf? Now I know you haven't educated yourself on things counter to your arguments. If the counter-arguments to what you believe that you're reading involve some crazy conspiracy theory, then you aren't being intellectually honest.

    > That said, a mad crusade to stop inflation is a hallmark of far-rightist, pro-aristocracy fiscal policy and all the evidence that the fed has taken other actions to harm the poor amount to jack shit in light of such a general agenda.

    *shrugs*

    > government's ability to respond to market crises- something rich people don't need the state to handle because they're fucking rich.

    We have a fundamental disagreement here. I am a voluntaryist. (Meaning, there are many levels on which I find the statement "government's ability to respond to market crises" to be dubious.)

    Reply

  • ayrnieu

    ayrnieu

    March 10, 2015, 6:43 pm

    > [I have time to say completely worthless things, because I'm very busy.]

    You don't have to share information like this.

    > [Have antibodies != immunity]

    This explains why TFS mark this as something odd ("antibodies(!)") instead of making this argument independently. You've successfully ignored the real arguments while waiting for me to make an incorrect inference from them!

    > They even used to claim

    Who cares about what *the entire group of people who ever doubted HIV-AIDS* have *ever claimed*?

    Reply

  • HotelCoralEssex

    HotelCoralEssex

    March 11, 2015, 8:36 am

    I don't think that 1Oz is really an effective payload for thermite. If you can get it to ignite the best you can expect is probably a shower of sparks.

    Zirconium powder, on the other hand, should work pretty well. There's a comparatively tiny amount in the mk211 cartridge's projectile and it seems to be effective; I am not sure how you would ignite it, however.

    A commenter in the lower rung of the thread suggested WP (White Phosphorus). This sounds like a great idea until you realize that the shells have to be totally hermetically sealed and there can be no oxygen at all in the shell during production, storage, and deployment. There's also a small matter of the stuff not being dense enough and coming apart midflight. The military uses bursting charges inside thin metal canisters filled with tiny felt wedges impregnated with WP. All of this adds complexity and reduces capacity.

    This is why I suggest zirconium powder.

    Reply

  • arizonaburning

    arizonaburning

    March 10, 2015, 3:23 pm

    Insecure, no. Realistic, yes. Every now and then, you get an idiot who has what I call a gunslinger mentality, where he tries to show the rest of the bar he's all that by picking on the biggest guy in the bar. That guy is sometimes me. Since a couple of the places I stop by occasionally are a little less refined than most, it sometimes occurs. Now at my age, I much prefer peaceful solutions to problems and 99% of the time that happens. Drinks get bought, tempers calm down and everyone is happy. But occasionally there are those for whom the phrase, "please realize what you're embarking on", will not dissuade them from wanting to fight me. I for one, do not like the idea of a fist to my face, and will not stand passively and allow someone to do so, just because I'm physically larger than they are. Smaller people can pack a good sized punch as well. In any case, the rules of fighting are very simple - drop your opponent quickly.

    Besides, by the time any punches would be thrown these days, the bouncers are usually on the idiot in question.

    Reply

  • projectshave

    projectshave

    March 10, 2015, 7:42 pm

    Thanks for sharing your story. I've always wondered why women in abusive relationship stay so long, as you were at age 18. When a guy is beating you up, don't you feel like escaping?

    I must admit I have a hard time relating to your response to the abuse. If someone does something bad *to* you, how does that make you feel bad about yourself? My parents beat the crap out of me for most of my life, but I always knew they were nuts and I would survive. I never blamed myself for their insanity. It's a vague question, but can you help me understand why you felt guilty when you were clearly a victim?

    Reply

  • ace_rancid

    ace_rancid

    March 10, 2015, 8:32 am

    I believe the most common argument is that the big pharmaceutical companies don't want marijuana legalized because just about any bloke with a basic understanding of gardening can grow weed in their house for little more than $20 a week for fertilizer (discounting lighting costs, assuming you just use natural sunlight because you don't need to hide it in your basement for risk of being arrested). And this plant can then be used to treat nausea, depression and headaches. These also just so happen to be three of the treatments that pharmaceutical companies make the most of their products for, because the potential market is huge, and unless you have an advanced degree in chemistry and a couple hundred thousand dollars worth of lab equipment in your garage, it'd be a lot harder/more expensive to make these cures than to grow a plant.

    So, put simply, legalized marijuana would probably hurt pharmaceutical companies. Honestly, I think it would be a paltry amount but I suppose every penny counts.

    Reply

  • daemin

    daemin

    March 10, 2015, 2:12 pm

    I wouldn't say that solution 1 is claiming the second envelope is dependent on the first envelope, but rather that in solution 1 you have _less information_ than in solution 2.

    Think about it without numbers involved, since they just confuse the issue.

    In case 1, you hold in your hand an envelope with X dollars in it. You know that one envelope has Y dollars in it, and the other envelope has 2Y dollars in it. _Given_ that you hold an envelope in your hands with X dollars in it, the other envelope _must_ have _either_ 2x or .5x dollars in it. In other words, knowing how much one envelope has in it limits the possible values of Y to either twice as much as, or half as much as that amount.

    In case 2, you know that one envelope has Y dollars in it, and the other has 2Y dollars in it, and you know what Y is, but you _do not_ know what the envelope you hold has in it. In this case you know exactly what value Y has.

    So the two situations are not identical, as the information available to you in them is not identical. Hence, you employ a different strategy in the two different situations.

    Edit: less information, not more...

    Reply

  • shortsightedsid

    shortsightedsid

    March 10, 2015, 3:28 pm

    For all the trolls that talk about outsourcing retribution and losing homes as justice for you losing your jobs, you don't seem to realize who are people being affected by this. Its not the English speaking, educated, upwardly mobile people who are being affected, but the poor, uneducated and the underprivileged. These are people who subsist on less than a dollar a day and don't even know where is America or what a computer is. These are not people who care about outsourcing but are worried about where their next meal comes from. So, before you act like a jerk, stop and think about the number 10 million.

    Reply

  • wbeavis

    wbeavis

    March 11, 2015, 9:32 am

    The blogger's anecdote is on Web Development and not Software. Akin to using a tool versus making a tool.

    I dispute the claim that software developers regularly need new equipment to keep up with technologies. This is generally a bogus argument. This ultimately depends on what you are working on. As a former employer would say, "programming is just typing". Where the real power is located is in the programmers head and not computer. Unless you can constantly compiling, a decent office system will work just fine. Bleeding edge systems are not required for most software development, period. Most SE's I've known who claim they need a bleeding edge system are just looking for a status symbol. Just like Execs who MUST have laptops.

    Reply

  • tobybuk

    tobybuk

    March 10, 2015, 3:40 pm

    Sorry, but quoting the IDF as a source to defend the IDF does not come even close to meeting the minimum standard required for a fact on this matter.

    But we all know about Ahmed Samur's truck the IDF bombed. "The rockets were being transferred, said the article, due to militants' fear that their present storehouse would be attacked by the IAF, as well as to be put to use for launching at Israel. " ... "I saw bodies, one of them belonging to my son Imad" Speaking to Haaretz by phone, Samur said: "These were not Hamas, they were our children, and I will tell you their names. Imad Samur, 32; Ashraf al-Dabar, 30; Mahmoud Rabayan, 15; Rami Rabayan, 23; Ahmed Hila, 19; Mohammed Mahdi, 17; Wissam Eid, 14; Mohammed Haber, 20.

    However a bit later the truth came out - this was just a businessman trying to save his business. The missiles were in fact welding gas canisters. The Hamas fighters were this mans sons and friends.

    This was presented by the IDF as fact, just like the facts you quoted to me.

    And the racist state of Israel deliberately wanted to hide the fact from the world - why else would they refuse to let reporters into Gaza even when the high court ordered them to.

    Racist, child killing sub-human scum.

    Reply

  • nessaneko

    nessaneko

    March 11, 2015, 12:10 am

    Well, to begin with I downloaded an ebook version of them because I was going on holiday and it was too hot to do anything but laze in the shade with my laptop. A few acquaintances had recommended them as light summer reading so it seemed like an opportunity to do just that.

    By the time I got halfway through the first one, my jaw would drop open and I would be rendered speechless with rage approximately every few pages. (You've heard how he stalks her by *watching her sleep* for *months*, right? And that she tries to kill herself because he's gone? And that he *disables her car* to stop her visiting a friend? Woohoo for controlling assholes!) I think I developed Stockholm Syndrome or some kind of variant and couldn't stop reading them. They're just hilariously bad, I've read better fanfiction. Now it just means I get to make jokes about sparkly things and his big floofy hair.

    Reply

  • Malhavik

    Malhavik

    March 11, 2015, 8:37 am

    I think it boils down to a place that men can have their own time and retreat from everyone else. Men have to put up with a lot of BS, more than anyone would admit. Men take things and hold it in because that is what we are taught. We don't talk about things, get in touch with our emotions, or anything that women do without being uncomfortable. We go to the man cave and build things or other things to relax. Plus we don't need a lot of space for it so why not let the woman have the rest of the house to make it comfortable for them.

    These man caves are so large because he has a obscene amount of money.

    Reply

  • mrwidget

    mrwidget

    March 10, 2015, 7:18 am

    When I find myself on a U.S. website that doesn't ship what I want to Canada, my next step is to look for the same thing on eBay. Specifically, I use eBay.ca since it limits to vendors willing to ship to Canada and it quotes shipping costs to Canada on the listing page when logged in.

    90% of the time I can find the same or an equivalent product on eBay from a vendor that will sell it immediately (so called Buy-it-Now). I always pick vendors with good ratings (>98%) and only once got something that I had to ship back to get a replacement. I also prefer to pay with Paypal than to give my credit card # to some company that might expose it some day through security breaches or whatever.

    I'd rather buy the product from a Canadian website or Canadian eBay vendor but when this isn't possible, then I usually get it shipped from a vendor in the U.S. or Hong Kong.

    Reply

  • cy-ra-no

    cy-ra-no

    March 10, 2015, 6:32 am

    if you choose an envelope, THEN assign a value, the problem is not well defined. see my other post.

    in the other case, it is. take your pick.

    other solution: read the problem to any person in the street. ask them to explain precisely what the Modus Operandi is. Write down the number of people who think it's the setting where values are assigned then chosen, and the others. Average. I am betting you people will choose the assign and switch one.

    If you win, I'll give you an envelope with a 50 bucks in it, and create another one with either half or twice the amount of money. Then i'll let you switch for 30 bucks. You should still make 32.5 bucks on average, no? That would be a good deal for you.

    Reply

  • Jhat

    Jhat

    March 11, 2015, 1:03 am

    Well, I started running about a year before but not that seriously, only every now and then and whenever I felt like it.

    I kinda quit for my marathon actually. Over my 4 months of training I limited myself to a total of 13 cigarettes. For me, it's never really been a concrete addiction, I smoke when I do because I want to. I enjoy smoking.

    I smoked over this past summer and am currently smoking again, though I have had a few breaks here and there (a week or 2 mixed in where I didn't smoke).

    Reply

  • Gyvon

    Gyvon

    March 11, 2015, 12:11 am

    I don't think it's China that anyone is worried about invading Australia. If China wanted to invade for land or resources, Siberia is the most likely target.

    India, on the other hand, could be a different story. India has over three times the population of the United States, but only a third of the land mass.

    To their east is Bangladesh, which is pretty small, and wouldn't add much land for India to spread out.

    West is Pakistan. If India invaded, they would not only have to deal with Pakistan's army and Nuclear weapons, but the Taliban as well, which probably would declare a truce with the Pakistan government long enough to throw India back. Even if India did knock off the Pakistan government, they would also, undoubtedly, have to deal with a massive insurgency, like the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    To the immediate north is the Himalayan mountain range, and beyond that, China. I don't know about you, but I think the world's largest military would have something to say if the world's second largest military came knocking. Again, nuclear weapons make an appearance.

    Australia, on the other hand, is a largely uninhabited country, since the bulk of the population is on the eastern coast. Australia has a far smaller military (53,000 vs. 1.4 million), and doesn't have nuclear weapons as far as I know.

    Out of those three choices, I'd say Australia would be the best option if India ever does make a move for more living space.

    note: I'm just speculating here. I don't know whether or not India even plans to make a move.

    Reply

  • PawFox

    PawFox

    March 10, 2015, 9:12 am

    I've had the same before, - me being a guy and my ex's father went blastic on me, even to the point where I apparently stole the remote control to there TV and that I knew there combination to there safe (which I had no clue they had).

    Just don't panic, if they want to call the cops etc.. let them - if they have recorded you stealing it - the camera will/should have a log of the time - if you have any chat logging enabled /msn/yahoo etc.. even reddit - you can use this against them to prove that you were someware else.

    If you've taken nothing - then just take it with a pinch of salt and get ready to laugh at her, when she makes all the fuss to find out she's got nothing.

    Edit: And the fact she texted you and not rang you - pretty much shows she's in the wrong.

    Reply

  • lukey

    lukey

    March 11, 2015, 3:56 am

    I live in Canada...we technically have snow on the ground around 100 days a year in my city, but I find that I can ride normally in all but the largest accumulations (storms etc). There are probably 10 days a year when it's an issue. Roughly the same as how heavy rain storms, thunderstorms etc are not a complete show-stopper during summer months.

    On a side note, I notice that a lot of people who own cars base their car-ownership around the extreme events in their life. Ie., they will buy a pickup because they haul a boat 2% of a year. Instead of buying a city car for 98% of the time, and renting a truck on special occasions.

    I think car-ownership has the same thing about it. Most of the time for a given person maybe it's unnecessary, but what about when there's snow? Person gets a car and drives it even on days where a bike is just as good.

    Reply

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